Сепаратисты всего мира приветствуют решение Международного суда

Kosovo freedom signal paves way for others

July 24, 2010

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Norwegian Oil & Gas Company. Start exploring our operations.www.Statoil.com Landmark ruling ... Kosovo Albanians take to the streets in the southern part of the divided town of Mitrovica in celebration of the international court’s finding.Court's opinion that independence is legal has far-reaching repercussions, writes Simon Tisdall. LONDON: Separatists and secessionists from Taiwan, Xinjiang and Somaliland to Sri Lanka, Georgia and the West Country of England will welcome this week's legal opinion from the United Nations' international court of justice in effect upholding Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia.With hindsight it seems clear the 1990 reunification of Germany ran contrary to modern history's tide, marking a sort of last stand for the old 19th-century model of the unitary nation-state. Since the Berlin Wall came down and the Soviet Union disintegrated two years later, things everywhere have been falling apart.The Serbian Foreign Minister, Vuk Jeremic, who led the opposition to Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence, suggested the fracturing of the nation-state paradigm, like cracks in a glass plate, could spread widely and do great damage.Speaking before Kosovo's 2008 break with Serbia, Mr Jeremic looked beyond the Balkans to countries such as Sudan. In Africa, he said, ''there are about 50 Kosovos waiting to happen''.International acceptance of Kosovo's unilateral act ''would be a very dangerous signal, a signal that there are no rules. Serbia wants to play by the rules. You just can't come along and say they don't matter any more,'' he said.The Serbian president, Boris Tadic, this week revisited the argument. A ruling favouring Kosovo ''would destabilise many regions of the world'', he said.Now that Serbia's worst fears have been realised, it remains to be seen whether such dire predictions prove accurate. More prosaically, the world court's delayed advisory opinion hardly came as a surprise and must now be managed politically if new strife, most possibly in ethnically mixed northern Kosovo, is to be avoided. In the end the ruling was more a matter of hard-headed realpolitik than carefully appraised international law.The US, Kosovo's principal sponsor, was adamant all along the court's opinion would have little practical impact. Independence was not primarily a matter of law, a White House spokesman said. ''We do not believe that declarations of independence are legal acts whose legality is affirmed or denied by this international court. They are political facts that have to be established through political realities.''Despite their protestations, Serbia and its backer, Russia, half expected this outcome. Their best course now may be to turn it to their advantage rather than play a spoiler's game at the UN General Assembly (which must endorse the ruling). One approach is to accept the European Union's proposed technical talks on creating a pragmatic modus vivendi between Belgrade and Pristina while seeking support, as a tacit quid pro quo, for a renewed effort to advance Serbia's EU-membership bid.The US may think it has got ahead. But Russia could win both ways, not least in terms of its Georgia intervention. The court's failure to oppose Kosovo's secession ''would automatically weaken the West's case against the recognition of [the independence of] Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia,'' said Petr Iskenderov of the Russian Academy of Science in International Affairs magazine. Moscow could also use the decision to push for an ''overhaul'' of the international community's approach to disputes in the Balkan and Caspian regions, he said.Serbia now faces the prospect of increased international recognition of Kosovo, its prospective membership of the UN, and the loss of a territory it regards as part of its sovereignty and history. At the same time, the gates to Europe swing open.It is a bitter pill to swallow. It could trigger domestic upheavals. But when the dust settles, common sense and self-interest may dictate acceptance of the outcome.

Eight degrees of separation

1974 Yugoslav constitution recognises autonomous status of Kosovo.1989 Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic strips Kosovo of its autonomy.1991 Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia declare independence from the Yugoslav federation. Balkan wars begin.1999 March NATO launches air strikes against Serbia after Milosevic refuses to halt ethnic crackdown.1999 June Milosevic agrees to withdraw troops. NATO arrives.2008 February Kosovo declares independence.2008 October UN General Assembly refers matter to International Court of Justice.July 22 Court issues opinion that independence is legal. Subject to UN confirmation.http://www.smh.com.au/world/kosovo-freedom-signal-paves-way-for-others-20100723-10oqg.html